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China’s naval modernization effort, ,has been underway for more than 25 years, since the early to mid-1990s, and has transformed China’s navy into a much more modern and capable force. China’s navy is a formidable military force within China’s near-seas region, and it is conducting a growing number of operations in more-distant waters, including the broader waters of the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and waters around Europe.

自上世纪90年代初至90年代中期以来,中国海军已经进行了25年多的现代化建设,使中国海军成为一支更现代化、更有战斗力的军事力量。中国海军是中国近海地区一支令人敬畏的军事力量,而且它还在西太平洋、印度洋和欧洲周边海域开展越来越多的军事行动。

within the past few years it has surpassed the U.S. Navy in numbers of battle force ships. ONI states that at the end of 2020, China’s will have 360 battle force ships,compared with a projected total of 297 for the U.S. Navy at the end of FY2020. ONI projects that China will have 400 battle force ships by 2025, and 425 by 2030.9 China’s naval ships, aircraft, and weapons are now much more modern and capable than they were at the start of the 1990s, and are now comparable in many respects to those of Western navies. ONI states that “Chinese naval ship design and material quality is in many cases comparable to [that of] USN [U.S. Navy] ships, and China is quickly closing the gap in any areas of deficiency.”10

在过去的几年里,中国海军的战舰数量已经超过了美国海军。到2020年底,中国将拥有360艘作战舰艇,而美国海军到2020年底预计只拥有297艘。到2025年,中国将拥有400艘作战舰艇,到2030年,中国海军将拥有425艘作战舰艇。中国海军的现代化程度和作战能力在许多方面可与西方海军相媲美,而且还在迅速缩小多个领域的差距

Submarines

(一)潜艇

China has been steadily modernizing its submarine force,Most of China’s submarines are non-nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSs). China also operates a small number of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) and a small number of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). The number of SSNs and SSBNs may grow in coming years, but the force will likely continue to consist mostly of SSs. DOD states that “The speed of growth of the submarine force has slowed and [the force] will likely grow to between 65 and 70 submarines by 2020.”

中国一直在稳步推进潜艇部队的现代化,中国的大多数潜艇都是常规动力潜艇。中国还拥有少量的核动力攻击潜艇和少量的核动力弹道导弹潜艇。
未来数年,中国海军会继续增加核动力攻击潜艇和核动力弹道导弹潜艇数量,但主力仍然以常规动力潜艇为主。到2020年,中国的潜艇数量可能会增长到65到70艘左右。

submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).23 China reportedly is developing a new SLBM, called the JL-3, as a successor to the JL-2.24

而根据报道,为了替换巨浪2,中国正在研发新一代的潜射弹道导弹,代号巨浪3,

Aircraft Carriers

(二)航空母舰



Shandong (Type 001A)
Shandong is a modified version of the Liaoning design that incorporates some design improvements, including features that reportedly will permit it to embark and operate a larger air
wing of 40 aircraft that includes 36 fighters.31 Its displacement is estimated at 66,000 to 70,000 tons.

“山东”号是“山东”号的改进型,据报,“山东”号的机库面积比“山东”号更大,可以容纳的40架舰载机,其中至少36架为喷气式战斗机。“山东”号的排水量估计为66000吨至70000吨。

Type 002 Carriers
Press reports state that the Type 002 carrier, the start of whose construction was announced in the Chinese press in November 2018,32 may have a displacement of 80,000 tons to 85,000 tons and that it will be equipped with electromagnetic catapults rather than a ski ramp, which will improve the range/payload capability of the fixed-wing aircraft that it operates.

中国媒体宣称,中国早在2018年11月就开始建造002型航母,其排水量为80000吨至85000吨,并将配备电磁弹射器,预计其搭载的固定翼舰载机数量还将进一步提升。

Type 003 Carrier
following the Type 002 carrier design, China was to begin building a Type 003 carrier design that would displace 90,000 to 100,000 tons and, inddition to being equipped with electromagnetic catapults, be nuclear powered.

在002型航母开始建造之后,中国已经开始设计003型航母,中国003型航母的排水量将达到9万到10万吨,除了配备电磁弹射器外,还将使用核动力。

Although aircraft carriers might have some value for China in Taiwan-related conflict scenarios, they are not considered critical for Chinese operations in such scenarios, because Taiwan is within range of land-based Chinese aircraft. Consequently, most observers believe that China is acquiring carriers primarily for their value in other kinds of operations, and to demonstrate China’s status as a leading regional power and major world power. Chinese aircraft carriers could be used for power-projection operations, particularly in scenarios that do not involve opposing U.S. forces, Chinese aircraft carriers could also be used for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) operations, maritime security operations (such as antipiracy operations), and noncombatant evacuation operations (NEOs). Politically, aircraft carriers could be particularly valuable to China for projecting an image of China as a major world power, because aircraft carriers are viewed by many as symbols of major world power status.

虽然中国的航空母舰在台湾冲突中可能发挥一些作用,但其实中国航母对台海战局的影响并不大,因为中国的战斗机和轰炸机从大陆机场起飞,航程就可以覆盖台湾全境。因此,大多数观察家认为,中国建造航母主要是为了其他领域的军事行动,并展示中国作为地区领导力量和世界大国的地位。
中国的航空母舰可以在不与美军直接对抗的情况下,投射力量,也可以用于人道主义援助,救灾,维护海上航路安全(如打击海盗),以及撤离非战斗人员等行动。
从政治上讲,航空母舰对中国来说意义非凡,因为它可以展示中国作为世界大国的形象,因为航空母舰被许多人视为世界大国地位的象征。

Carrier-Based Aircraft

(三)舰载机

China’s primary carrier-based fighter aircraft is the J-15 or Flying Shark (Figure 10), an aircraft derived from the Russian Su-33 Flanker aircraft design that can operate from carriers equipped with a ski ramp rather than catapults. China reportedly plans to develop a carrier-capable variant of its J-20 fifth-generation stealth fighter and/or a carrier-capable variant of its FC-31 fifth-
generation stealth fighter to complement or succeed the J-15 on catapult-equipped Chinese carriers.34 China reportedly is also developing a carrier-based stealth drone aircraft.35

中国目前的舰载战斗机是歼15“飞鲨”,是俄罗斯苏-33舰载机的仿制机型,可以在滑跃甲板上起飞。据报,中国正在开发歼-20隐形舰载战斗机,或FC-31隐形舰载战斗机,以及一种舰载隐形无人机。

Surface Combatants

(四)水面作战舰艇

The first Type 055 ship was reportedly commissioned into service on January 12, 2020, and the sixth was reportedly launched (i.e., put into the water for the final stages of construction) in December 2019 Type 052D ships have been in serial production for some time, and the 23rd such ship was reportedly launched in December 2019

中国第一艘055大型驱逐舰于2020年1月12日正式服役,而且首批要建造6艘055中国的052D导弹驱逐舰已经连续生产了一段时间,截止2019年12月,中国已经下水了23艘052系列的导弹驱逐舰

China is also building a new type of corvette (i.e., a light frigate, or FFL) called the Jiangdao class or Type 056 (Figure 14), which displaces about 1,500 tons.

中国还在建造一种名为056的新型护卫舰。排水量约1,500吨。



Anti-Ship Missiles

(六)高超音速导弹

China reportedly is fielding two types of land-based ballistic missiles with a capability of hitting ships at sea—the DF-21D (Figure 1), a road-mobile anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) with a range of more than 1,500 kilometers (i.e., more than 910 nautical miles), and the DF-26 (Figure 2), a road-mobile, multi-role intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a maximum range of about 4,000 kilometers (i.e., about 2,160 nautical miles) that DOD says “is capable of conducting conventional and nuclear precision strikes against ground targets as well as conventional strikes against naval targets ”16 China reportedly is also developing hypersonic glide vehicles that, if incorporated into Chinese ASBMs, could make Chinese ASBMs more difficult to intercept.17

中国正在部署两种能够打击海军舰艇的陆基弹道导弹,一种是射程超过1500公里(即910海里)的东风21D.另一种是最大射程约为4000公里的东风26中程弹道导弹。它既可以对地面目标进行精确的常规打击和核打击,也可以打击常规海军目标。除此之外,中国也正在发展高超声速滑翔导弹,如果中国的中远程弹道导弹也使用这一技术,那么中国的弹道导弹将更加更难拦截。

Discussion
Regarding the U.S.-China balance of naval power in general, U.S. and other observers generally assess that while the United States today has more naval capability overall, China’s naval modernization effort since the 1990s has substantially reduced the U.S. advantage, and that if current U.S. and Chinese naval capability trend lines (such as those shown in Table 1 and Table
2)do not change, China might eventually draw even with or surpass the United States in overall naval capability. Regarding the current U.S.-China naval balance of power specifically in the South China Sea, some observers are concerned that China has already drawn even with or even surpassed the United States. U.S. Navy Admiral Philip Davidson, in responses to advance policy questions from the Senate Armed Services Committee for an April 17, 2018, hearing before the committee to consider nominations, including Davidson’s nomination to become Commander, U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM),64 stated that “China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States.”65 A January 18, 2020, press report quotes James Kraska of the Naval War College as stating that “the US has lost advantage throughout the spectrum of operations, from low-level interaction against China’s maritime militia to higher-end conflict scenarios,” and that “in other words, China has escalation dominance, because it has the power to deter any US turn towards escalation. The US is outmatched in all of the scenarios.”

观察人士普遍认为,自1990年代以来,中国海军的现代化发展,显著削弱了美国保持的技术优势,如果中国按照当前的速度急速发展,而美国不作出改变的话,中国海军最终将超过美国海军。
一些观察人士担心,在南中国海,中国海军可能甚至超过美国海军。
美国太平洋司令部表示,“在南中国海,中国海军能够在各种冲突情况下保持对美国海军的优势。”
美国海军战争学院的詹姆斯·克拉斯称“在南中国海,无论是低烈度冲突还是高烈度冲突,美国都处于劣势”,“换句话说,中国海军已经占据了主导权,并有能力将美国海军阻吓在南中国海之外。

The PLA is not close to catching up to the U.S. military in terms of aggregate capabilities, but it does not need to catch up to the United States to dominate its immediate periphery. The advantages conferred by proximity severely complicate U.S. military tasks while providing major advantages to the PLA.

目前中国解放军在总体战力上还没有赶上美军,但称霸东亚完全不成问题。在东亚,随着时间的推移,美军所面临的战场环境将越来越复杂,中国的优势也将会越来越大。

Over the next five to 15 years, if U.S. and PLA forces remain on roughly current trajectories, Asia will witness a progressively receding frontier of U.S. dominance.

在接下来的5到15年里,如果美国和解放军的军事力量继续以目前的态势发展下去,那么美国对亚洲的领导力将会逐渐消退。

Although trends in the military balance are running against the United States, there are many actions that the United States could take to reinforce deterrence and continue to serve as the ultimate force for stability in the Western Pacific.

虽然现在的趋势对美国不利,但美仍可以采取许多行动来加强威慑,继续充当稳定西太平洋的终极力量。