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Up, up we go, we''''''''re now back to strong dollar of the 1990s,at the end of the day it overcomes all.

上升,我们一路上升,我们现在回到了20世纪90年代的强势美元时期,船到桥头自然直。

why is it our exorbitant privilege?I think exorbitant privilege in the sense the U.S. actually can get away with policies that no other country can,I mean think about this, when the Fed was doing QE for five years,other countries might have basically brought on a crisis, the U.S. on the other hand was able to watch the recovery off this.

为什么那是我们的过度特权? 我认为过度特权在某种意义上说,美国实际上可以制定政策,其他国家无法照搬的政策,并能全身而退。我的意思是,试想在美联储实施量化宽松政策五年里,其他国家可能已经遭遇了一场危机,但另一方面,美国却可以伺机而动。

So I think that's the main thing, but I think what we need to basically recognize is, there is now bifurcation of the dollar in the market.Dollars doing very well against EM currencies, against commodity currencies, but against the Euro and the Yen or the likes,the dollar has been actually taking a bit of a back seat because the problem line is, as China dues, China slows,

所以我认为这是最主要的原因,但我们也需要认识到的是,市场上现在存在美元的分歧。 美元对新兴市场货币,对大宗商品货币,表现非常好,但对欧元和日元或类似货币,美元实际上已经退居二线,问题在于随着人民币贬值,中国经济放缓,



but I think those days are coming to an end. I think somebody in Detroit is already calling up somebody in Washington, somebody in Washington is calling up...

但我觉得那些日子就要结束了。 我想底特律已经有人给华盛顿打电话了,华盛顿也有人准备打电话了...

Exactly! This is my point, you know David Woo, that this is not solved by economists,it's solved by manufacturers like Detroit, or frankly by the state department, isn't it?

没错! 这就是我的观点, David Woo,你也知道这不是经济学家能解决的问题,而是像由底特律这样的制造商,或者坦率地说是国务院才能解决的问题,不是吗?

Absolutely, especially now with Donald Trump, and basically Mario, basically Rubio talking up, you know basically,the whole story about China, Japan taking jobs away from the U.S., I think you have to believe that sooner or later the U.S. will be forced to join the currency war.

完全正确,特别是在唐纳德 · 特朗普、马里奥.德拉吉(欧洲银行行长)和马可.卢比欧(美国总统参选人)的提倡下,你懂的,基本上整个故事都是关于中国、日本从美国抢走工作机会,我认为你必须相信,美国迟早会被迫加入货币战争当中。

I gotta ask this question, very critical here. Have you been advising Mr. Trump on economic policy?

我要问这个问题,非常关键的问题。 你一直在为特朗普先生提供经济政策方面的建议吗?

Not yet.

还没有。

What you're talking about Trump and Rubio also to some extent,it's the great American past-time to predict our own decline, but does anything threaten?

你说的特朗普和卢比奥在某种程度上,美国人最大的消遣就是预估自己经济的衰退,但是有什么威胁吗?



And because so much is invoiced in dollar as well, you know, the currency war works better for us than it does for anybody else.

而且因为有太多的东西是以美元计价的,你懂的,相对于其他国家来说,货币战争对我们更加有利。

Exactly. There is no question.

完全正确,这是无庸置疑的。

Until? For our viewers out there that don't know Modigliani, or viewers who don't really understand reflation versus inflation,what is the trip that turns us from a benevolent strong dollar into a troubled strong dollar?

但直到何时? 对于那些不了解莫迪利亚尼(竟大利经济学家)的观众,或者那些不了解通货再膨胀与通货膨胀之间关系的观众来说,是什么让我们从一个仁慈的强势美元变成了一个麻烦不断的强势美元的?

I think you know, honestly, this is where renminbi would due, which is my prediction,I think my prediction is that the biggest story in the next six months is gonna be an acceleration in the renminbi duation,

我觉得你能懂的,老实说,这正是人民币会贬值的起点,而这也是我的预测。我的预测是,在未来六个月内,最大的新闻就是人民币加速贬值。

that's gonna basically create competitive duation around the world,

会在全球范围内造成竞争性贬值。

commodity prices are gonna come down sharply, it's gonna be highly deflation for the U.S. That's where the problem is.

商品价格会急剧下降,美国将面临高度通货紧缩,这就是问题所在。

Okay, David Woo, thank you so much with this core call of a second to rivet of what we will see in the Yen,we've got calculus into the six o'clock hour, that's cool.

好的, David · 吴,非常感谢你参与我们的讨论,让我们得以聚焦在日元的观望上,这很酷。